Abstract
This research combined global climate, crop and economic models to examine the economic impact of climate change-induced loss of agricultural productivity in Pakistan. Previous studies conducted systematic model inter-comparisons, but results varied widely due to differences in model approaches, research scenarios and input data. This paper extends that analysis in the case of Pakistan by taking yield decline output of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) for CERES-Wheat, CERES-Rice and Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) crop models as an input in the global economic model to evaluate the economic effects of climate change-induced loss of crop production by 2050. Results showed that climate change-induced loss of wheat and rice crop production by 2050 is 19.5 billion dollars on Pakistan’s Real Gross Domestic Product coupled with an increase in commodity prices followed by a notable decrease in domestic private consumption. However, the decline in the crops’ production not only affects the economic agents involved in the agriculture sector of the country, but it also has a multiplier effect on industrial and business sectors. A huge rise in commodity prices will create a great challenge for the livelihood of the whole country, especially for urban households. It is recommended that the government should have a sound agricultural policy that can play a role in influencing its ability to adapt successfully to climate change as adaption is necessary for high production and net returns of the farm output.
Highlights
Agriculture is one of the most climate-sensitive sectors of an economy
The assessment of the ultimate economic effect of climate change on producers, consumers, and other agriculture-related agents requires a detailed evaluation of economic impacts using inputs from a different climate and crop models
Agriculture in Pakistan is the backbone of the economy
Summary
Agriculture is one of the most climate-sensitive sectors of an economy. It responds to temperature, precipitation, soil radiation, etc., which are directly associated with climate change. To study the potential impacts of changing climate, scientists and crop experts carried out integrated and collaborative research [2] They have used global climate models that analyze the interaction of weather variables using different physical, biological, and chemical principles and estimate their responses to rising levels of greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere. These models consider different socio-economic projections, including income and population growth, energy use, and industrial growth to predict earth’s future climate. Two most commonly used models are DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) and APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) [14,15,16]
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