Economic Downturns and Land-Use Change: A Spatial Analysis of Urban Transformations in Rome (Italy) Using a Geographically Weighted Principal Component Analysis

Antonio Tomao,Luca Salvati,Giovanni Quaranta,David Fanfani,Walter Mattioli,Carlotta Ferrara,Rosanna Salvia

doi:10.3390/su132011293

Antonio Tomao, Luca Salvati + Show 5 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/su132011293

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Abstract

Globally, processes that drive urbanization have mostly evolved within economic downturns. Economic crises have been more severe and frequent, particularly in the Mediterranean region. However, studies on the recession effects on urbanization are limited. The present study explores possible differences in spatial direction and intensity of land-use change trajectories at two time intervals (2006–2012, 2012–2018) using high-resolution Copernicus Land Urban Atlas images in the Rome metropolitan area. To this aim, a landscape ecology classical approach based on land-use metric analysis combined with a multivariate spatial analysis has been carried out. Results have identified different land-use change patterns during expansion and recession. “Greening”, defined as the conversion of urban marginal areas into croplands and forests, increased during the recession. At the same time, the rate of urban expansion into rural areas decreased, thus indicating a beneficial effect of economic downturns in reducing urban sprawl.

Highlights

Over the past decades, rapid demographic, economic, and urban expansions have pushed a massive movement of resources and people, especially in most developed countries [1,2,3,4]
The study area includes the statutory Rome metropolitan area (6169 km2 ) which corresponds to the large urban zones (LUZ) of the Urban Audit program comprising the city core and its commuting zone
Focusing on the urban expansion, intended as the conversion into artificial uses of natural lands, such as croplands or forests (Figure 3), it has been found that these landuse changes account for around 65% and 40% of the total changes for the 2006–2012 and

Summary

Introduction

Rapid demographic, economic, and urban expansions have pushed a massive movement of resources and people, especially in most developed countries [1,2,3,4]. This phenomenon has been widely investigated, demonstrating the strong relationship between urbanization processes and the economic conditions during expansion and recession periods [5,6,7,8]. Economic conditions have been proven to influence the effects of urban planning Planning tools, such as urban growth boundaries, were more effective to promote urban development within the delimited area during economic expansion than during recession.

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