Abstract
This paper studies the effects of economic distress on support for radical right parties. Using Swedish election data, I show that one layoff notice among low-skilled native-born workers increases, on average, support for the Swedish radical right party the Sweden Democrats by 0.17–0.45 votes. The relationship between layoff notices and support for the Sweden Democrats is stronger in areas with a high share of low-skilled immigrants and in areas with a low share of high-skilled immigrants. These findings are in line with theories suggesting that economically distressed voters oppose immigration as they fear increased labor market competition. In addition, I use individual-level survey data to show that self-reported unemployment risk is positively associated with voting for the Sweden Democrats among low-skilled respondents while the opposite is true for high-skilled respondents, echoing the aggregate-level findings.
Highlights
The increase in support for radical right parties (RRPs) is one of the largest changes to the European political landscape in the last few decades
This study examines the economic factors behind the increased support for the radical right by using detailed election precinct-level data on the number of layoff notices as a proxy for economic distress, and election results for the 2006 and 2010 national elections in Sweden
The results in this paper show that layoff notices among low-skilled nativeborn workers increase support for anti-immigration parties
Summary
The increase in support for radical right parties (RRPs) is one of the largest changes to the European political landscape in the last few decades. A number of studies rely on survey data on respondents’ self-perceived unemployment risk and attitudes on immigration (Dustmann & Preston, 2007; Hainmueller & Hiscox, 2010; Inglehart & Norris, 2016; Mayda, 2006; Malhotra et al, 2013), while others link regional unemployment rates or predicted job separation caused by import competition to actual election outcomes (Autor et al, 2020; Colantone & Stanig, 2018a; Dippel et al, 2015; Knigge, 1998; Lubbers et al, 2002) Most of these studies find that economic distress affects voting for RRPs, either through its effect on anti-immigrant attitudes or on opposition to trade liberalization. The section discusses some of these theories more in detail
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