Economic diagnostics of organization’s payment obligations fulfillment on the basis of scenario approach

Abstract

Subject. The article addresses economic diagnostics of performance of payment obligations based on scenario approach, enabling to evaluate possible scenarios, unveil the main causes of financial threats to the organization, and develop measures to eliminate them. Objectives. We focus on the development of methodological aspects of implementing economic diagnostics of payment obligations fulfillment based on the scenario approach to reduce risks of insolvency and improve resource management efficiency. Methods. The methodological basis of the study was analysis and synthesis, generalization and comparison, logical and systematic reasoning, grouping, economic and mathematical models in the form of regression equations. Results. We offered to conduct economic diagnostics of payment obligations performance, using the scenario approach and considering the industry specifics. The basis is an assessment of solvency and liquidity of economic entity, reflecting the ability to repay obligations and fund turnover. To determine potential scenarios for future developments, we recommended to build scenarios for changes in the statement of financial results. The paper describes specifics of modeling different types of scenarios: realistic, optimistic, and pessimistic, aimed at minimizing the problems of the organization associated with the level of solvency. Conclusions. Economic diagnostics of payment obligations fulfillment requires a study of organization’s production and financial activities, the results of which are reported in the income statement. Predictive scenarios considering the industry specifics based on performance data make it possible to strengthen the financial stability of the organization, reduce risks of its insolvency, and optimize the use of resources.