Economic development and family size: a comment.

Abstract

The relationship between income and fertility decline in selected Latin American countries was examined. This analysis corrected for spurious results from Rios' previous analysis of the same data. The random error term between educational status of women and gross national product suggested that the relationship between the two was spurious in the original specification. The second equation revealed that the educational status of women did reduce Latin American birth rates, which was consistent with an opportunity cost explanation of childbearing decisions. High school attendance did not have any impact for European countries because attendance was almost universal in Europe. The importance of the educational status of women in the second equation confirmed Rios' models that showed increased levels of education led to reduced fertility rates. The second equation allowed for linear differences in estimation. A question was also raised about the interpretation that increased gross national product would lead to decreased fertility; it would be equally plausible that high fertility would lead to increased population and decreased income. Rios provided a useful overview of Latin American fertility and pointed out the parallel to European fertility, which declined with increased income.