ECONOMIC DEPRIVATION AND CHANGES IN HOMICIDE ARREST RATES FOR WHITE AND BLACK YOUTHS, 1967–1998: A NATIONAL TIME‐SERIES ANALYSIS*

Abstract

Using time‐series techniques with national data for 1967–98, we model the effects on changes in age‐race‐specific arrest rates of changes in indicators of economic deprivation. A measure of child poverty is positively related to juvenile arrest rates for both races, whereas changing unemployment (lagged) yields a surprising negative effect on youth offending. Measures of intraracial income inequality are also associated with changes in juvenile arrest rates, but the effects differ by race. Between‐race inequality is unrelated to changes in arrest rates for both races. Our general conclusion is that fluctuations in juvenile homicide offending over recent decades can be understood, at least in part, with reference to the macro‐economic environment confronting young people and their families.