Economic correlates of violent death rates in forty countries, 1962-2008: A cross-typological analysis.

Abstract

Our goal was to identify if there might be advantages to combining two major public health concerns, i.e., homicides and suicides, in an analysis with well-established macro-level economic determinants, i.e., unemployment and inequality. Mortality data, unemployment statistics, and inequality measures were obtained for 40 countries for the years 1962-2008. Rates of combined homicide and suicide, ratio of suicide to combined violent death, and ratio between homicide and suicide were graphed and analyzed. A fixed effects regression model was then performed for unemployment rates and Gini coefficients on homicide, suicide, and combined death rates. For a majority of nation states, suicide comprised a substantial proportion (mean 75.51%; range 0-99%) of the combined rate of homicide and suicide. When combined, a small but significant relationship emerged between logged Gini coefficient and combined death rates (0.0066, p < 0.05), suggesting that the combined rate improves the ability to detect a significant relationship when compared to either rate measurement alone. Results were duplicated by age group, whereby combining death rates into a single measure improved statistical power, provided that the association was strong. Violent deaths, when combined, were associated with an increase in unemployment and an increase in Gini coefficient, creating a more robust variable. As the effects of macro-level factors (e.g., social and economic policies) on violent death rates in a population are shown to be more significant than those of micro-level influences (e.g., individual characteristics), these associations may be useful to discover. An expansion of socioeconomic variables and the inclusion of other forms of violence in future research could help elucidate long-term trends.