Economic considerations of the determination of investments for launch vehicle costs in the next two decades (1980–2000)

Abstract

Investments in launch vehicle costs will be substantial in the next two decades, both in the RDT & E as well as the investment/operation phases. For Europe the “investment”; question is further complicated by the choice of (a) making full use of the Space Shuttle system or (b) further expansion and development of Shuttle independent space transportation capabilities. Considerations on future launch vehicle costs will be increasingly resolved on purely economic grounds: are the proposed investments economically efficient in the sense of the best use of these funds for space activities? Investments for reasosn of “prestige”; or “technology push” are probably better spent on payload programs, rather than space transportation systems. Economic considerations played a major factor in the choice of the space Shuttle system being developed in the United States. The economic considerations applied were: • • A comparison of space transportation systems (STS) costs of expendable vs reusable STSs of about $21 billion each (May 1979 dollars) • • The effects of different STSs on payload costs, including (1) RDT & E costs, (2) investment and operations costs and (3) on assured reliability of programs. (Repair, refurbishment, check-up capabilities) of about $63 billion (STS) and $76 billion (Expendables) respectively. These effects of STS on payload costs ($13 billion) often are lumped together under the term “payload effects”. They proved decisive in the choice of a Space Shuttle system, and the precise configuration now being developed and completed by NASA. Three economic evaluation approaches can be used separately or jointly when comparing space transportation system investments: • • Equal capability analyses • • Equal budget analyses • • New capability analyses. Looking ahead to investments into further launch vehicle developments in the 1980s and 1990s the same criteria will apply to any economic choice among rather expensive programs.