Economic Consequences of War

Abstract

One influence of war has repeatedly asserted itself in the past—an effect on the costs of production and on the competitive position of the industries and firms of victorious or neutral nations. This subject needs more study, but certain facts suggest a hypothesis, of three parts. First: war expands some industries or concerns, increases their efficiency, enables them to operate, at the end of the struggle, on a comparatively low-cost basis, intensifies their competitive advantages, and improves their position in relation to foreign competitors. Second: war—for the duration—bolsters up some high-cost units by enabling them to sell at a profit all they can produce. The end of the war places such high-cost units at a disadvantage in the process of absorbing the shocks of the transition to a peacetime economy. Third: the history of postwar periods usually exhibits a sharp contest between such low-cost and high-cost enterprises. While “low cost” and “high cost” may refer to the relative positions of units within the same country, in most of this discussion, the terms will be applied to the producers of one country (either victor or neutral) to mean that their costs are low or high in comparison with those of their foreign competitors.