Abstract

Thalassemia is a genetic disorder that significantly impacts the health and well-being of individuals in Vietnam. This study aimed to assess the economic burden of Thalassemia treatment in Lam-Dong Province from the perspective of the Vietnam Social Security and to develop a model to forecast these costs. This study analyzed the medical records of all 288 health-insured Thalassemia patients who received treatment in Lam-Dong Province from 2019-2021. The annual economic burden was calculated as the total direct medical cost of treatment per patient over one year. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) was utilized to forecast economic burdens. The best fit model was selected based on evaluation criteria including the R2 value, the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and posterior model probabilities. The study found that the average annual economic burden of Thalassemia treatment was VND 9,947,000 (±6,854,000), equivalent to approximately USD 426.7 (±294.0), with blood transfusions being the main contributor to costs (63%). Using BMA, the best fit model to forecast economic burdens included variables including patient age, sex, and length of hospitalization, with age being the key factor with the greatest impact on the increase in economic burden. These findings provided important information for policymakers in Vietnam, as they highlighted the significant economic burden of Thalassemia treatment in the country. By developing a model to forecast these costs, policymakers can make informed decisions on how to allocate resources and support individuals with Thalassemia and their families.

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