Abstract
The first occurrence of wheat blast in 2016 threatened Bangladesh's already precarious food security situation. The Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI), together with the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) developed and released the wheat variety BARI Gom 33 that is resistant to wheat blast and other common diseases. The new variety provides a 5–8% yield gain over the available popular varieties, as well as being zinc enriched. This study examines the potential economic benefits of BARI Gom 33 in Bangladesh. First, applying a climate analogue model, this study identified that more than 55% of the total wheat-growing area in Bangladesh (across 45 districts) is vulnerable to wheat blast. Second, applying an ex-ante impact assessment framework, this study shows that with an assumed cumulative adoption starting from 2019–20 and increasing to 30% by 2027–28, the potential economic benefits of the newly developed wheat variety far exceeds its dissemination cost by 2029–30. Even if dissemination of the new wheat variety is limited to only the ten currently blast-affected districts, the yearly average net benefits could amount to USD 0.23–1.6 million. Based on the findings, international funder agencies are urged to support the national system in scaling out the new wheat variety and wheat research in general to ensure overall food security in Bangladesh and South Asia.
Highlights
Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is prone to the deadly wheat blast dis ease caused by Magnaporthe oryzae pathotype triticum (MoT) which has emerged in Bangladesh (Callaway, 2016; Islam et al, 2016; Malaker et al, 2016; Mottaleb et al, 2018b), its first occurrence outside of Latin America
Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI) with the technical support of CIMMYT has developed a new blastresistant, high yielding, zinc-fortified wheat, and the national seed board of Bangladesh approved the new wheat for dissemination in 2017
This indicates the need for external support to speed up the dissemination process of the new seed. As such seed multiplication and dissemination entails costs, the present study examined the potential net economic benefits of the dissemination of the new wheat first in the currently blast-affected 10 districts, second in the 45 wheat blast-vulnerable districts, and throughout Bangladesh
Summary
Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is prone to the deadly wheat blast dis ease caused by Magnaporthe oryzae pathotype triticum (MoT) which has emerged in Bangladesh (Callaway, 2016; Islam et al, 2016; Malaker et al, 2016; Mottaleb et al, 2018b), its first occurrence outside of Latin America. In the 2015–16 wheat season, wheat blast affected nearly 15,000 ha in eight districts in Bangladesh (or 3.4% of the do mestic wheat-producing area of 445,000 ha in the 2015-16 season). In a recent study, applying the climate analogue analysis, Mottaleb et al (2018b) warned that out of 40.9 million ha of total wheat-producing land in India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan, more than 17% of the area (6.9 million ha) is vulnerable to wheat blast. In the 2017–18 wheat season, the area reduced to 351,213 ha: equivalent to less than 3% of Bangladesh’s cropland (BBS, 2019), and a 12.3% reduction over the 2008-09 season (Table 1) This reduction in land committed to wheat growing is mainly the result of government policy discouraging wheat cultivation in the severely blast-affected districts following the 2015-16 blast outbreak (Mottaleb et al, 2019a). With a domestic price of USD 268/ton, the product value of wheat in 2017–18 was nearly USD 295
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