Economic Benefit Analysis of "Direct Trading Model" DPV Project—Real Options Method

Abstract

With the continuous advancement of market-oriented transaction of distributed photovoltaic (DPV) power generation, the "direct trading model" (DTM) as the most important market-oriented transaction model occupies an increasingly important position, but the DTM economic benefits affected by many uncertainties, the real option method (ROV) can calculate the value of uncertainty factors, so this paper uses the ROV method to evaluate the value of the DPV projects. This paper first constructs the revenue and cost model, then introduces ROV theory to construct the value model with risk factors; secondly, through empirical analysis, it proves that the ROV model can quantify the value of uncertainty factors, and can improve the accuracy of value assessment. Through the sensitivity analysis, we find the trend and degree of the influence of each factor on the value of the project. Finally, we put forward some suggestions for the research results.