Economic Assessment of HPHT Diamond Synthesis Technology

Abstract

Abstract The High Pressure - High Temperature (HPHT) diamond synthesis technology, commercialized in the 1950's to manufacture diamond grit, represents the benchmark for many industrial cutting and wear applications, such as abrasives, cutting tools and wear resistant surfaces. Here we assess grit manufacturing cost and price trends, so as to better appreciate the technology's history, and to assess its future potential in view of the new CVD diamond synthesis. To estimate manufacturing costs of HPHT diamond grit, we have employed a unique computer based Technical Cost Modeling (TCM) approach, which provides a systematic basis for capturing individual cost elements for each unit operation in a model facility for diamond grit production. Sensitivity analysis was applied to understand the dependence of cost upon equipment size, yield, plant size and annual throughput for diamond grit and compacts. To estimate price trends, published information from the U.S. government was employed. Technology for producing synthetic diamond grit has progressed significantly over the past 35 years, resulting in scale driven decreases in production costs(1989$) from about $4,40 in 1963 to approximately $0.14 in 1989. Over the same period, worldwide grit synthesis has increased from about 5 million carats in 1963 to about 340 million carats in 1989. In a characteristic experience curve behavior often observed as industrial markets grow and mature, synthetic grit prices (1989$) followed production costs, decreasing from about $11.50/carat in 1963 to about $0.74/carat in 1989. For the year 2000, our cost model projects that HPHT grit costs could fall below $0.10/carat, a value CVD diamond technology cannot achieve without major breakthroughs.