Abstract
This study evaluates the economic consequences of hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease releases from the future National Bio and Agro Defense Facility in Manhattan, Kansas. Using an economic framework that estimates the impacts to agricultural firms and consumers, quantifies costs to non-agricultural activities in the epidemiologically impacted region, and assesses costs of response to the government, we find the distribution of economic impacts to be very significant. Furthermore, agricultural firms and consumers bear most of the impacts followed by the government and the regional non-agricultural firms.
Highlights
Scientific laboratories designed to study diseases are not completely risk free, and the possibility exists that accidents of nature or deliberate acts of terror might cause the spread of a disease that the facility is trying to prevent
To better reflect uncertainty inherent in the potential different outbreak starting locations, additional consequences are reported for the 5th, 50th, and 95th percentiles based on location of the index case
There were several assumptions regarding vaccinations including: (1) an emergency vaccination program was implemented after the first animal was infected; (2) the FMD vaccination supply was not a limiting constraint; (3) a 10 km vaccination ring was employed; (4) all animals that were vaccinated were culled unless the outbreak lasted longer than 2 quarters, at which the culling of vaccinated animals ceased at the end of the 2nd quarter
Summary
Scientific laboratories designed to study diseases are not completely risk free, and the possibility exists that accidents of nature or deliberate acts of terror might cause the spread of a disease that the facility is trying to prevent. On the one hand animal and human health officials in the United States are interested in preventing the introduction and spread of diseases like Ebola, Rift Valley Fever or Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza, while on the other hand scientists within the United States need small quantities of these materials for study and to develop response strategies should an outbreak occur. It is a tenuous balancing act with tradeoffs that can be staggering varying in outcomes and economic value. The United Nations World Tourism Organization [10] forecasts a 3 to 4% increase over 2012s record one billion international tourist arrivals worldwide in 2013
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