Economic and resource and environmental carrying capacity trade-off analysis in the Haihe River basin in China

Abstract

Resources and environment provide the fundamental conditions for human beings to live. Coordinating the relationship between resources and environmental protection and economic development is a necessary measure for humans to pursue sustainable development. To explore the Haihe River basin’s economic and resource carrying capacity development, 26 indexes from 2000 to 2016 were selected based on pressure state response model selection. Through the TOPSIS model, the entropy method, the exponential smoothing method, and the Hurst index, the comprehensive capacity of the Haihe River is constructed. This study aims to quantify each carrying capacity of the Haihe River basin and analyse their levels and characteristics, with an emphasis on the trade-off analysis between economic carrying capacity and resource and environmental carrying capacity; finally, the study aims to predict the development of each type of carrying capacity. The results showed that in the Haihe River basin, there’s dramatic change in comprehensive carrying capacity’s level and subsystems from 2000 to 2016. The resource and environmental carrying capacity have negative correlation with economic carrying capacity, while a positive correlation between talent carrying capacity and economic carrying capacity. Based on prediction, from 2017 to 2021, the level of development of each capacity subsystem indicated an increase in sustainability. This research provides a trade-off analysis between the economic and resource and environmental carrying capacity. The study also offers a theoretical basis to the coordinated development of various carrying capacities, which has reference significance for promoting the sustainable development of the river basin.