Economic and Mathematical Modelling of the Effectiveness of the National System for Combatting Cyber Fraud and Legalisation of Criminal Proceeds Based on Survival Analysis Methods

Abstract

In modern world, the digitalisation of financial relations, the development of innovative technologies, and the emergence and use of cryptocurrencies for payments lead to an increase in the number of cyber frauds in the financial sector and their intellectualisation, increasing the illegal outflow of funds abroad. Ineffective decisions and inaction in counteracting these threats lead to large-scale negative consequences of both financial and social nature. The purpose of this study is to implement economic and mathematical modelling of the effectiveness of the national system for combatting cyber fraud and legalisation of criminal proceeds, which is based on the use of survival analysis methods. The study provides a bibliometric analysis of publications on the effectiveness of cyber fraud and combatting the legalisation of illegal funds, by building a bibliometric map of keywords, using VOSviewer software. This allowed identifying 7 clusters of basic categories of cyber fraud analysis, and changes in the vectors of research scientists showed a visual map of the contextual-temporal measurement of research into the effectiveness of cyber fraud in the publications of the Scopus database. The paper examines the effectiveness of the national system for combatting cyber fraud and money laundering based on survival tables. As a result of the study, the effectiveness of the national system for combatting cyber fraud and money laundering was analysed based on the Kaplan-Meier method. The study identified the dependences of the effectiveness of the national system for combatting cyber fraud and legalisation of criminal proceeds on the time interval after the discovery of violations. The practical value of applying the developed model is to form an analytical basis for further management decisions by the National Bank of Ukraine, the State Financial Monitoring Service, and the Security Service of Ukraine in terms of the effectiveness of the national system to combat cyber fraud and legalisation of criminal proceeds and the need to adjust it