Economic and geographical approach to the assessment of trade flows for border region

Abstract

The article offers the solution to the urgent scientific and practical problem of geography assessment of trade flows of a region in the forecast calculations. The growing influence of changes in the external environment on the development of regions (including geopolitical processes, sanctions restrictions of countries on the movement of goods, pandemics COVID-19, etc.) has heightened the need for such research. Furthermore, the implementation of well-known models of economic growth oriented to import substitution and the increase in export potential is still lacking. The importance of ensuring economic security is increasing. The example of the exclave Kaliningrad region is used to discuss the development of a methodological approach to the analysis of trade flows in the region, considering their geographical distribution. The border position is the one most related to the production of a significant number of internal and external trade flows that are crucial to the region‘s performance. The fact that it is the border position that is most connected with the production of a significant number of internal and external trade flows that are important for the functioning of the region defined the object of study. The authors have developed algorithms for estimating trade flows by types and directions, links with domestic production and final consumption. For each group of trade flows the analysis of value and quantity indicators is extended by determination of their geographical identity. This provides a systematic representation both of the economic assessment of the processes in the region and the degree to which their geography is consistent with the achievement of the greatest efficiency. On this basis, well-known regional models are completed by incorporating scenario calculations of changes in trade flows by economic and geographical criterion. This enables analysis of options for the geographical distribution of trade flows to ensure growth in macroeconomic indicators and the development of regional production.