Economic and environmental impacts of EVs promotion under the 2060 carbon neutrality target—A CGE based study in Shaanxi Province of China

Abstract

As the world's largest emitter of CO2, China has committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. For the high emission of the transport sector, the promotion of electric vehicles (EVs) is an important way to reduce CO2 emissions in the road transport sector. Due to the current high proportion of coal-fired power in Shaanxi province, the indirect emission of EVs is greater than the direct emission of fuel vehicles. In this study, two regional dynamic CGE models were constructed to evaluate the economic and environmental impact of EVs promotion and power generation structure optimization under the carbon neutral target in Shaanxi province. The results show that the promotion of EVs and optimization of the power generation structure will reduce the carbon emissions of electricity used in the transport sector from 4.5 million tons to 0.1 million tons. Compared with the baseline scenario, the NOX, SO2, and PM emission in the carbon neutrality scenarios has decreased by 50%, 65%, and 32%, respectively in 2060. Further, the GDP loss of carbon neutrality scenarios compared to the baseline scenario in 2060 is between 7.9% and 12.3%. Fortunately, the promotion of EVs and the promotion of the power generation structure can help to optimize the allocation of carbon emission allowance, which would alleviate the GDP loss caused by the carbon neutrality target. So it is necessary to encourage the development of EVs and vigorously develop renewable energy at the same time in other provinces with similar power structure like Shaanxi.