Abstract
Rice blast (Magnaporthe oryzae) is a key concern in combating global food insecurity given the disease is responsible for approximately 30% of rice production losses globally—the equivalent of feeding 60 million people. These losses increase the global rice price and reduce consumer welfare and food security. Rice is the staple crop for more than half the world’s population so any reduction in rice blast would have substantial beneficial effects on consumer livelihoods. In 2012, researchers in the US began analyzing the feasibility of creating blast-resistant rice through cisgenic breeding. Correspondingly, our study evaluates the changes in producer, consumer, and environmental welfare, if all the rice produced in the Mid-South of the US were blast resistant through a process like cisgenics, using both international trade and environmental assessment modeling. Our results show that US rice producers would gain 69.34 million dollars annually and increase the rice supply to feed an additional one million consumers globally by eliminating blast from production in the Mid-South. These results suggest that blast alleviation could be even more significant in increasing global food security given that the US is a small rice producer by global standards and likely experiences lower losses from blast than other rice-producing countries because of its ongoing investment in production technology and management. Furthermore, results from our detailed life cycle assessment (LCA) show that producing blast-resistant rice has lower environmental (fossil fuel depletion, ecotoxicity, carcinogenics, eutrophication, acidification, global warming potential, and ozone depletion) impacts per unit of rice than non-blast resistant rice production. Our findings suggest that any reduction in blast via breeding will have significantly positive impacts on reducing global food insecurity through increased supply, as well as decreased price and environmental impacts in production.
Highlights
Rice is a crucial food staple for more than half of the world; its supply must double by 2050 to keep up with food demand from population growth [1]
The results from scenario one, where all hectares of rice production planted to non-resistant varieties were sprayed once with fungicide, indicate on average that $42.84 million is spent annually in Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi on blast prevention
In scenario two, where a simulated percentage of historical plantings to blast-susceptible varieties were infected, it was estimated that Mid-South producers spend an average of $18.43 million on blast mitigation, given an assumed average infection rate of 21.52%, and that two aerial applications of fungicide were applied at a cost of $151.73 ha-1
Summary
Rice is a crucial food staple for more than half of the world; its supply must double by 2050 to keep up with food demand from population growth [1]. From 2002 to 2014, rice producers in Arkansas, Mississippi, and Louisiana planted over nine million hectares of rice to varieties that were susceptible to the rice blast fungus [4]. Yield loss from blast infections depends on varietal susceptibility, the degree of infection, and the timing of fungicide application. Some yield losses associated with blast outbreaks have reached 50% or more [5], and the cost of mitigating those blast outbreaks via fungicide application can reach over $70 ha-1. There are blast-resistant cultivars available for production in the US, most of them are hybrid lines released by RiceTec and were associated with an average seed premium of approximately $237.12 ha-1 in 2015, resulting in many rice producers opting for blast-susceptible varieties [6]. This study attempts to estimate the value of raising the often overlooked “yield floor” through blast resistance
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