Economic and demographic trends signal an impending physician shortage.

Abstract

It is widely believed that the United States is producing too many physicians. We have approached this issue by developing a new model for workforce planning based on assessments of the macrotrends that underlie the supply and use of physician services. These trends include economic expansion, population growth, physicians' work effort, and the provision of services by nonphysician clinicians. Contrary to earlier predictions, this model projects that the United States soon will have a shortage of physicians and that if the pace of medical education remains unchanged, the shortage will become more severe. A dialogue focused on that eventuality is imperative.