Abstract
Abstract: The objective of this work was to estimate the coffee supply by calibrating statistical models with economic and climatic variables for the main producing regions of the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The regions were Batatais, Caconde, Cássia dos Coqueiros, Cristais Paulista, Espírito Santo do Pinhal, Marília, Mococa, and Osvaldo Cruz. Data on coffee supply, economic variables (rural credit, rural agricultural credit, and production value), and climatic variables (air temperature, rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, water deficit, and water surplus) for each region, during the period from 2000-2014, were used. The models were calibrated using multiple linear regression, and all possible combinations were tested for selecting the variables. Coffee supply was the dependent variable, and the other ones were considered independent. The accuracy and precision of the models were assessed by the mean absolute percentage error and the adjusted coefficient of determination, respectively. The variables that most affect coffee supply are production value and air temperature. Coffee supply can be estimated with multiple linear regressions using economic and climatic variables. The most accurate models are those calibrated to estimate coffee supply for the regions of Cássia dos Coqueiros and Osvaldo Cruz.
Highlights
Coffee (Coffea arabica L.) is a commodity that generates employment and income in several Brazilian regions (Aparecido et al, 2015) and is one of the country’s main agricultural exports (Resende et al, 2009; Barbosa et al, 2012)
Coffee supply increased with increases in total rural credit (RC), rural credit from agriculture (RCA), and the value of coffee production (VP), because the increases in the credits and the price of the product allowed coffee growers to invest in their crops, which led to increased production (Tosi et al, 2007)
Coffee supply decreased with increases in mean air temperature (T), potential evapotranspiration (ETo), and water deficit (WD)
Summary
Coffee (Coffea arabica L.) is a commodity that generates employment and income in several Brazilian regions (Aparecido et al, 2015) and is one of the country’s main agricultural exports (Resende et al, 2009; Barbosa et al, 2012). Worldwide, it is the most consumed beverage after water (Zelber-Sagi et al, 2015). Is the quantity of a product or service available for purchase over a period of time (Saylor, 1974; Alves & Bacchi, 2004). Identifying the variables that determine the variation in coffee supply is fundamental for understanding the sector’s response
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
