Economic analysis of the contributions of aquaculture to future food security

Abstract

There is much concern about future fish consumption based on expected population growth as well as due to the large number of people still suffering from undernourishment. At the same time, there may be limits to the potential for expanded production from fisheries and aquaculture. What is often overlooked in many studies of future food security is the economic impact of changes in supply and demand, for example, due to changes in food prices, household income, and consumer preferences. This paper takes an economic approach to analysing the supply of and demand for fish up to 2030, with an emphasis on aquaculture. Four scenarios are considered, with the average annual growth rate in production varying between 2.4 and 5%, but with little change in capture fishery production. Variations in the aquaculture growth rates are found to have important consequences not only for future fish prices but also for per capita fish consumption up to 2030. Sub-Saharan Africa is particularly affected by the growth rate of aquaculture production.