Economic analysis of nuclear power reactor dissemination to less developed nations with implications for nuclear proliferation

Abstract

An economic model is applied to the transfer of nuclear-power reactors from industrialized nations to the less developed nations. The model includes demand and supply factors and predicts the success of US nonproliferation positions and policies. It is concluded that economic forces dominate the transfer of power reactors to less developed nations. Our study shows that attempts to either restrict or promote the spread of nuclear-power technology by ignoring natural economic incentives would have only limited effect. If US policy is too restrictive, less developed nations will seek other suppliers and thereby lower US Influence substantially. Allowing less developed nations to develop nuclear-power technology as dictated by economic forces will result in a modest rate of transfer that should comply with nuclear-proliferation objectives.