Econometrics of the environmental Kuznets curve: Testing advancement to carbon intensity-oriented sustainability for eight economic zones in China

Abstract

Threats posed by global climate change have heightened the urgency for economies to transition to sustainability. However, quantitative metrics that measure sustainability status remain under development, hampered in part by the difficulty of identifying clear relationships between economic growth and sustainability. The Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis provides a framework for describing sustainability status relative to socioeconomic development. In this study, the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis was adopted to investigate statistical relationships between the carbon intensity of human well-being (as an indicator of sustainability) and economic development in eight economic zones of China during 1997–2015. The results provide new evidence that seven of eight Chinese economic zones began advances to sustainability (defined here as downward turning points marked by inverted “N” shapes in the Environmental Kuznets Curve) between 2012 and 2015. The lone exception was the Northwestern economic zone, in which an approach to sustainability had not yet occurred by 2015. This study thus supports the contention that environmental policies and technologies have contributed to improving sustainability in terms of carbon intensity. The results suggest two strategic options for further increasing sustainability in China: 1) “first help the weakest”; and 2) “first help the latest to sustainability”.