Econometric modelling of Nigeria economic growth: A VECM and impulse response functions

Abstract

Economic growth characterizes the quantitative changes that occur in economic variables and attributed to overall increase in production per capital. This study examined the economic impact of exchange rate, foreign direct investment, inflation rate and the trade balance on Nigeria GDP over the period of 1970-2022. The dynamic causal association among the selected macroeconomic variables and economic growth in Nigeria was evaluated via the implementation of vector error correction model (VECM) procedures and impulse response functions. The VECM estimates and the impulse response shows that the response of GDP to inflation and exchange rates is positive while the response of GDP to a one period shock to the trade balance yields a marginal negative depreciation. The result justifies that the place of Exchange rate, Inflation and Trade Balance to Nigeria economic growth cannot be overstated. The results of the work suggest that to promote stable and sustainable economic growth, policy makers should lay more emphasis on encouraging stable and reasonable exchange rate. Also, the work recommends that to promote economic growth and keep inflation low in Nigeria, Anti- inflationary policies should be accompanied to attract foreign investors and frustrate capital fleeing from the country.