Econometric modeling of the nexus of agricultural policy and food security in Nigeria: A dummy variable regression approach

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Sustainable food production is not negotiable if food security is to be achieved. Recent statistics show increasing food insecurity issues in Nigeria despite government policy and programmes in the agricultural sector. The study specifically described agriculture growth trend under three policy regimes and analysed the effects of agricultural sector policy on food security in Nigeria between 1960 and 2020. Secondary data on agricultural output, gross deficit financing, labour employed in the agricultural sector, land, and population were obtained from World Development Indicators (WDI) of the World Bank, Food and Agriculture Organization Statistics (FAOSTAT), Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), and National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The data were analysed using trend analysis and Dummy Variable Regression (DVR) model. The Instantaneous Growth Rate (IGR) and compound growth rate (CGR) were respectively 3 percent and 7.2 percent in 1960 – 1969, 0.5 percent and 1.2 percent in 1970 – 1985, and 3.4 percent and 8.1 percent in 1986 – 2020; the country experienced stagnated pattern of growth in the agriculture sector within the oil boom and policy reconstruction period with an instantaneous and compound growth rate of 0.5 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively. An IGR and CGR of 3.4 percent and 8.1 percent, respectively were recorded during the policy stabilization era with an accelerating growth pattern. The intercept of agricultural output and per capita food production of the period with complete agricultural policy document differs from the period with no policy document by 36.8 percent and 39.8 percent, respectively, revealing an increase in the value of agricultural output and per capita food production in the period with a national policy document. The study concludes that availability of agricultural sector policy document directly impacts food security. The post-estimation tests on the models confirmed that policy implications emanating from this study are adoptable to improve food security in Nigeria through the agricultural sector policy. Proper and efficient policy mix to support agricultural production was recommended. Key words: Agricultural policy, Agricultural output, Acceleration, Dummy Variable Regression (DVR), Food security, Sustainability, Nigeria