Abstract
An accurate forecasting for long-term electricity demand makes a major role in the planning of the power system in any country. Vietnam is one of the most economically developing countries in the world, and its electricity demand has been increased dramatically high of about 15%/y for the last three decades. Contribution of industry and construction sectors in GDP has been increasing year by year, and are currently holding the leading position of largest consumers with more than 50% sharing in national electricity consumption proportion. How to estimate the electricity consumption of these sectors correctly makes a crucial contribution to the planning of the power system. This paper applies an econometric model with Cobb Douglas production function - a top-down method to forecast electricity demand of the industry and construction sectors in Vietnam to 2030. Four variables used are the value of the sectors in GDP, income per person, the proportion of electricity consumption of the sectors in total, and electric price. Forecasted results show that the proposed method has a quite low MAPE of 7.66% for long-term forecasting. Variable of electric price does not affect the demand. This is a very critical result of the study for authority governors in Vietnam. In the base scenario of the GDP and the income per person, the forecasted electricity demands of the sectors are 112,853 GWh, 172,691 GWh, and 242,027 GWh in 2020, 2025, 2030, respectively. In high scenario one, the demands are 115,947 GWh, 181,591 GWh, and 257,272 GWh, respectively. The above values in the high scenario are less than from 9.0% to 15.8 % of that of the based on in the Revised version of master plan N0. VII.
Highlights
An accurate forecasting for long-term electric loads can make a major contribution to the planning of a national power system
In order to meet that contribution, more than 50% of Vietnam electricity consumption has been delivered to that two sectors; in which some huge consumers could be identified as cement industry, steel - making factories, food processing facilities and beverage manufacturers, textile industry, etc
Where ECt is the consumption of industry and construction sectors in the year t; Gt, It, Xt, and Pt are represented for the gross domestic production (GDP) of industry and construction sectors, income per person (US$/person), proportion of industry and construction sectors’ electricity consumption in total, and electric tariff in the year t, respectively
Summary
An accurate forecasting for long-term electric loads can make a major contribution to the planning of a national power system. In order to meet that contribution, more than 50% of Vietnam electricity consumption has been delivered to that two sectors; in which some huge consumers could be identified as cement industry, steel - making factories, food processing facilities and beverage manufacturers, textile industry, etc. Consumption of those industries has been increased significantly in recent years 1. Worldwide-studies on forecasting long-term electric load demand over the last decades are mainly focused on applying artificial neural network (ANNbased models) 2, and econometric model (i.e. Cobb Douglas) into planning process 3. Cobb Douglas production function is an econometric approach which combines different statistical techniques and economic theories to forecast long-term
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