Econometric estimations of popularity functions: A case study for Austria

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the effects of changes in economic conditions on the popularity of political parties in Austria. After a brief description of the Austrian political system, we estimate single equations and simultaneous systems of popularity functions for different parties, based on traditional theoretical foundations. Results show that some effects of economic variables on popularity exist, although they are different between different policy regimes. Traditional popularity functions nevertheless outperform models based on the assumption of voters' rational expectations, which claim that only unexpected changes in economic conditions affect political popularity.