Econometric Analysis of the Factors of Long-term Unemployment in Poland

Abstract

Long-term unemployment that is lasting more than twelve months,a phenomenon described by the theory of economics as a manifestation of a permanentimbalance between labor supply and demand for labor. In fact, it bringsthe same negative effects both in terms of economic, social and individual sphere.As a result, it leads to the formation of pejorative phenomena and behavior. Tocounter these negative phenomena, public employment services in its terms ofreference have the early detection of people at risk of long-term unemployment andto take preventive measures.The purpose of this article is to present logit econometric models defining thefactors which have a significant impact on long-term unemployment. These modelscan be used to predict the probability of long-term unemployment at the microlevel, ie for a single person. Due to the fact that the survey methodology are two definitions of unemployment – the first by the methodology of the Labour ForceSurvey, the second according to the law on employment promotion and labor marketinstitutions, one presented two models describing the probability of long-termunemployment and a comparative analysis.