ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF EGYPTIAN EXPORTS OF ORANGE USING GRAVITY MODEL

Abstract

The study investigated the relative importance of Egypt's exports oforange for fruit exports, agricultural exports and total exports during the period - , Studying the development of quantity, value and export prices of Egypt's orange exports during the period - , Studying the geographical distribution of Egypt's orange exports to the most important countries during the period - ,. Estimation of the Gravity Model for Egyptian Exports of Oranges during the period - ). The researchwas based on the published and unpublished secondary data issued by thesystem The Central Administration for Public Mobilization and Statistics andthe computer database of the Agency, the Central Administration ofAgricultural Economy of the Ministry of Agriculture, the Food andAgriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), foreign tradepublications, and some previous studies in this field. To achieve the objectivesof the research, statistical, economic and statistical analysis methods wereused through Estimation of the general trend models, the most important ofwhich is the linear pattern of the cultivated area, production, productivity,quantity, value and export prices. The economic analysis was based on someindicators, the most important being the instability coefficient, (Ginicoefficient), and the gravity model was used to determine the factors affectingEgyptian exports of orangesThe main findings of the research:The instability coefficients of the total export volume of orange arefound to be unstable. The instability coefficient for the average period reachedinstability coefficients below in at a rate of about and thehighest in at about Of the orange was unstable as the instabilitycoefficient for the average period was about . The instability coefficientbelow was in at about and the highest in at . Theinstability coefficients of the total export value of orange were unstable,Uncertainty Resolution of the average period of about and reachedinstability coefficient below in at a rate of about and by ,about rate.The results of the Gravity Model Test show that there is an inversecorrelation between the quantity of orange exports and the total Egyptian GDPand the population of Egypt. This may lead to increased local demand fororanges with increased production and a positive correlation between thequantity of orange exports And each of the total national product of importing countries, and the number of population of those countries, that the more thepopulation in the importing country increased the demand of the state onimports and thus increased the demand for Egyptian exports of potatoes, theexistence of a direct relationship between the amount of orange exports andthe volume of production of oranges may return that However, despite theincrease in local production of oranges, the percentage of rejection of exportedshipments increases every year with the strictness of the standards set forexport and the spread of diseases in Egyptian oranges, especially fresh fruit flydisease, and a direct relationship between the quantity of exports of orange andexport price where the increase in price to encourage Exporters found that thedistance variable between Egypt and the countries importing the orange has anegative effect on Egypt's exports of oranges. In other words, the greater thedistance between countries, the higher the transportation costs. The negativeeffect of the distance on exports shows more with the goods Quick damage