Ecology, opportunity or threat? Drivers of the caracal (Caracal caracal) population decline in South Africa

Abstract

AbstractAnecdotal evidence suggests that there is interspecific competition between black‐backed jackal (Canis mesomelas) and caracal (Caracal caracal) on farmland in South Africa. Home range data were used across both years (1983–2016) and provinces, as well as polynomial interpolation, to quantitatively assess changes in the population of caracal and black‐backed jackal over time. The jackal abundance estimates had low uncertainty, while the caracal data had high uncertainty. A Gaussian model of interspecific competition was developed, using the properties of the Gaussian model and the more reliable jackal abundance data to reduce the uncertainty associated with the caracal data. It was found that caracals have actually declined in South Africa over the past few decades. Caracals are both beneficial to society in terms of trade and other uses and a threat to farmers in terms of livestock predation. To explore the drivers for hunting further, a predator–prey model was developed. The model found that killing for trade is not the main driver for declines in caracal numbers. However, reducing the persecution of caracal on farmland actually stabilises the number of black‐backed jackal, resulting in ‘win–win’ outcomes for both farmers and caracal. A concerted Africa‐wide response to caracal declines is needed.