Abstract
Abstract A preliminary model was constructed of the population dynamics of black beetle, Heteronychus arator (F.), in Paspalum dilatatum pasture. Mortality could be modelled as a simple function of seasonal temperatures. The model was based on the relationships between spring temperature and summer mortality and the density-dependent variation in natality which reflects changes in adult immigration and/or fecundity with changes in density. The model was used to simulate populations over a 25–year period from temperature records; predictions of high numbers showed good correlation with actual outbreaks. Some density dependence was found to be necessary in the model. It was concluded that populations are relatively stable in paspalum pastures, which could be considered as refuge areas during adverse climatic conditions. The potential of models as an aid to prediction of population outbreaks on a regional basis is discussed.
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