Abstract
This work explores ecological and climate-related threats to Afghanistan and discusses support approaches from a European Crisis Management (ECM) perspective. It goes beyond the much-debated troop withdrawal, COVID-19 crisis and peace negotiations and opens an underestimated topic: ‘Climate Change Assistance’. The article aims to advance knowledge on the effects of climate change on human security in Afghanistan and advocates a conflict-sensitive approach. To this end, a climate-related assessment of the human security situation was undertaken and several threat scenarios, options and solutions for enhancing state resilience were developed. The bases for this research were several field trips undertaken by the author since 2004, workshops and an extensive literature review. As a result, it can be stated that the negative impacts of climate change and pollution on Afghanistan’s security and development architecture are massive and make ECM efforts very complex. However, several capacity-building initiatives for military, diplomatic, humanitarian and local stakeholders were identified. On the regional level, this includes the support for early warning systems and hydro-diplomacy with Pakistan, Iran and India. On the local level, the support for community water management and environmental protection matters, while building upon traditional Afghan mechanisms for handling water crises or disasters. Another outcome is the need for more in-depth research in this field as some findings are also useful for other fragile states. The paper argues that there is an urgent need for ECM to respond to the devastating effects of climate change in Afghanistan and identifies several smart opportunities to tackle some root causes of the conflict.
Highlights
Rising global environmental risks such as climate change, water shortages and natural disasters have contributed to a significant rise in violent conflicts since 2010 along with the three main conflict motives, namely the quest for power, resources and reputation (Elwert, 2004, p. 33)
Ecological threats may add to destabilisation and increase the risk of armed conflicts (Ryan, 2019)
Afghanistan is the country most exposed to ecological threats in the world (Institute for Economics and Peace, 2020, p. 8)
Summary
Rising global environmental risks such as climate change, water shortages and natural disasters have contributed to a significant rise in violent conflicts since 2010 along with the three main conflict motives, namely the quest for power, resources and reputation (Elwert, 2004, p. 33). Rising global environmental risks such as climate change, water shortages and natural disasters have contributed to a significant rise in violent conflicts since 2010 along with the three main conflict motives, namely the quest for power, resources and reputation The ecological threat exposure of fragile states is linked to climate change, and to political and socio-economic structures – with Afghanistan, Iraq and Yemen as examples. The capacity of such states to provide basic services and to cope with multiple threats is very limited (Bressan, 2020). The nexus of insecurity, violent conflicts and climate change appears to be substantial, but is not uncontested (Bochsler, 2020)
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