Ecological security early-warning in central Yunnan Province, China, based on the gray model

Abstract

Abstract Ecological security assessment and early-warning research on urban agglomerations is an important way to achieve the sustainable social, economic and natural development of urban agglomerations. In this study, the ecological security evaluation index system in central Yunnan Province (CYP) urban agglomerations was constructed based on the Driving Forces, Pressure, State, Impact and Response (DPSIR) framework, and the gray early-warning model was applied on the 1 km × 1 km pixel and county levels to realize early-warning of ecological security in the CYP in 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2035. The early-warning results show that (1) the ecological security situation of the CYP will gradually improve. By 2035, the proportion of no warning (grade I) at the pixel level increased by 10.76%, and the number of non-warning districts and counties at the county level increased by 14. (2) In the future, the ecological security situation will remain serious. The lowest value of the ecological security early-warning index (ESEI) shows a downward trend (from 0.436 in 2020 to 0.404 in 2035), which indicates that the ecological environment is deteriorating continuously in some areas. (3) Eco-security warnings will be mainly located in the north, west and some central areas of the CYP, and these sites are where ecological security management and regulation should be strengthened in the future. The results can provide a reference for ecological protection and economic development decisions in the CYP.