Ecological Science and Statistical Paradigms

Abstract

In his excellent research commentary “Ecological science and statistical paradigms: At the threshold” ( Science 's Compass, 23 Jan., [p. 502][1]), Brian A. Maurer calls for more testable models in analyzing ecosystem behavior, given the complexity and causal uncertainty associated with such ecosystems. Others, including me, would take his recommendation one step further. One major social science approach to analyzing highly complex and uncertain behavior is triangulation, the use of very different (indeed, orthogonal) theories, methods, or databases to converge on points for follow-up ([1][2]). By using such different but formal approaches to address an issue, we do not so much reduce the issue's uncertainty or complexity (although that is one aim) as we increase our confidence about how to proceed. Triangulation has recently been applied to the debate over sustainable development and ecosystem management ([2][3]) initiated by Ludwig, Hilborn, and Walters' 1993 Science Policy Forum ([3][4]). 1. [↵][5]1. N. Denzin , The Research Act (Aldine, Chicago, IL, 1970); 1. R. L. Shotland, 2. M. Marks 1. T. D. Cook , in Social Science and Social Policy, R. L. Shotland, and M. Marks, Eds. (Sage, Beverly Hills, CA, 1985), pp. 21–52; 1. J. Brewer, 2. A. Hunter , Multimethod Research (Sage, Newbury Park, CA, 1989). 2. [↵][6]1. E. Roe , Taking Complexity Seriously: Policy Analysis, Triangulation, and Sustainable Development (Kluwer, Boston, 1998). 3. [↵][7]1. D. Ludwig, 2. R. Hilborn, 3. C. Walters , Science 260, 17 (1993). [OpenUrl][8][FREE Full Text][9] [1]: /lookup/doi/10.1126/science.279.5350.502 [2]: #ref-1 [3]: #ref-2 [4]: #ref-3 [5]: #xref-ref-1-1 View reference 1 in text [6]: #xref-ref-2-1 View reference 2 in text [7]: #xref-ref-3-1 View reference 3 in text [8]: {openurl}?query=rft.jtitle%253DScience%26rft.stitle%253DScience%26rft.issn%253D0036-8075%26rft.aulast%253DLudwig%26rft.auinit1%253DD.%26rft.volume%253D260%26rft.issue%253D5104%26rft.spage%253D17%26rft.epage%253D36%26rft.atitle%253DUncertainty%252C%2BResource%2BExploitation%252C%2Band%2BConservation%253A%2BLessons%2Bfrom%2BHistory%26rft_id%253Dinfo%253Adoi%252F10.1126%252Fscience.260.5104.17%26rft_id%253Dinfo%253Apmid%252F17793516%26rft.genre%253Darticle%26rft_val_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Ajournal%26ctx_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ctx_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Actx [9]: /lookup/ijlink/YTozOntzOjQ6InBhdGgiO3M6MTQ6Ii9sb29rdXAvaWpsaW5rIjtzOjU6InF1ZXJ5IjthOjQ6e3M6ODoibGlua1R5cGUiO3M6MzoiUERGIjtzOjExOiJqb3VybmFsQ29kZSI7czozOiJzY2kiO3M6NToicmVzaWQiO3M6MTE6IjI2MC81MTA0LzE3IjtzOjQ6ImF0b20iO3M6MjQ6Ii9zY2kvMjgwLzUzNjUvODAzLjQuYXRvbSI7fXM6ODoiZnJhZ21lbnQiO3M6MDoiIjt9