Abstract
Ecological risk assessment is an important part of the sustainable development of World Heritage. The Ming Great Wall Heritage (MGWH) plays an important role in World Heritage conservation as a representative of large linear heritage, yet its ecological risks have not received much attention. This study assessed the ecological risk of MGWH based on simultaneous consideration of spatial heterogeneity and autocorrelation of geographic factors, and four protection zones were further identified from the perspective of preservation status and risk by using GeoDetector, principal component analysis and bivariate autocorrelation. The results showed that there were statistically significant differences in the preservation status of MGWH at different elevations. Based on this assessed ecological risk, it was found that 63.49% of MGWH grids were in the low to medium risk, while the highest risk areas (16.61%) were mainly concentrated in lower (200–500 m) and medium (500–1000 m) elevation. As elevation increased, the dominant factor of ecological risk shifted from human factors to natural factors and the main ecological risk showed a trend of increasing and then decreasing with increasing elevation. In addition, four types of risk protection zones (i.e., Protection—Restricted, Restoration—Moderate exploited, Restoration—Restricted and Protection—Moderate exploited) and policy suggestions were identified in this study from the perspectives of conservation, restoration and development, respectively. Future ecological protection of the MGWH should be based on the principle of “cultural heritage protection first”, with restricted development and use (e.g., tourism and education) and enhanced ecological restoration and environmental management of the surrounding area. This study provides references for the risk assessment of the cultural heritage at a large spatial scale, which is conducive to the maintenance and improvement of heritage value.
Highlights
World Heritage sites (WHS), which have Outstanding Universal Value (OUV) [1], are considered a critical enabler of sustainable development [2]
This study finds that for linear cultural heritage at large spatial scales, it is more practical to combine the regional autocorrelation of ecological risk and preservation status for the identification of protection zones based on the spatial heterogeneity of ecological risk
China has issued a plan on the construction of national culture parks for the Great Wall and aims to complete the construction of the parks by 2023 with related cultural resources enjoying better protection, inheritance and utilization
Summary
World Heritage sites (WHS), which have Outstanding Universal Value (OUV) [1], are considered a critical enabler of sustainable development [2]. Target 11.4 of The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development proposes to protect and safeguard the world’s cultural and natural heritage [3]. Damage to any one of cultural heritage sites (CHSs) can endanger the livelihoods of local communities [4]. CHSs are facing catastrophic impacts, often causing irreversible damage [5]. The loss or deterioration of CHSs has negative impacts on local and national communities, in terms of their intangible value as they represent icons of human civilization and symbols of identity, and their tangible value as they can bring benefits [6,7,8]. It is necessary to establish a risk assessment framework for targeted risk responsive strategies and achieve the goal of sustainable development [9]
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