Ecological risk assessment and identification of risk control priority areas based on degradation of ecosystem services: A case study in the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract

Ecological risk assessment (ERA) is an important element in territorial spatial planning, and the integration of ecosystem services into ERA is a current hot topic. In this study, taking the Tibetan Plateau as an example, a two-dimensional matrix is constructed based on the probability of risk occurrence and the possible loss caused by the risk for ecological risk assessment, with topographic sensitivity, ecological resilience, landscape vulnerability, and ecological sensitivity as probability representations, and the degradation of key ecosystem services as loss representations to improve the traditional ERA model. The results show that: (1) the probability shows a distribution pattern of high in the northwest and low in the southeast, with high-probability dominating, accounting for about 55.94%; the loss shows a distribution of low in the north and high in the south, with 30.54% of the region experiencing increased losses. (2) The ecological risk level is dominated by middle-high and high, the sum of the two accounts for 55.44%, while low and middle-low risk areas account for only 10.47%. Based on the proportion of high-risk in 45 cities, the risk control priority areas are identified: Naqu, Ali and Rikaze. (3) The Moran's I for probability, loss, and risk were 0.878, 0.615, and 0.567, respectively, indicating that all three showed significant positive spatial autocorrelation. The negative correlation between probability and loss indicates that there is spatial heterogeneity between them.