Abstract
Abstract Conflicts between changing landscapes and static nature protection concepts were addressed as an example of the agricultural landscape of SW Norway. We aimed to deduce indicators for spatio-temporal landscape changes to draw scenarios for future protection perspectives of a RAMSAR and nature reserve. To estimate the variability of bird diversity, changes in vegetation patterns were analysed to predict bird occurrence. We obtained a differentiated analysis of present landscape dynamics by measuring landscape structure, vegetation, hydrology and nutrient concentration. Multivariate statistics were used to extract the main driving forces for changes in vegetation patterns out of a complex landscape ecological data set. Subsequently, we compared the measured data with those of past landscape stages to determine landscape changes and their mechanisms at different spatio-temporal scales. Ecological process indicators (EPI) were derived, and three different indicator constellations were used for scenario descriptions. These scenarios were chosen as to the current assumptions of typical contrasting nature protection strategies. Concluding, we used EPIs to evaluate nature protection aims and to assess scenarios of changing landscapes. This approach will be transferable to other examples of nature protection conflicts in the agricultural landscape in general.
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