Ecological niche models predict the potential distribution of the exotic rotifer Kellicottia bostoniensis (Rousselet, 1908) across the globe

Abstract

The invasion of non-native species is one of the major factors influencing the loss of biodiversity. The rotifer Kellicottia bostoniensis, which is native to North America, has been registered in several other countries and on other continents. We investigated the main climatic-environmental variables suitable for the potential distribution of K. bostoniensis and, hence, the areas of non-native regions where it could spread. We used different statistical niche models within an ensemble forecasting approach to estimate environmental suitability and the potential global distribution area of K. bostoniensis. Precipitation in the driest month and temperature in the coldest month were the most important variables in predicting the distribution of the species. Our predictions indicated that countries with high invasive potential included Argentina and Brazil (South America), Croatia, France, and Germany (Europe). The results also revealed that many areas with high invasive potential, such as East Asia, have no recorded occurrences yet. Our study provides important information for implement management measures to deal with the problems of the spread of K. bostoniensis through ballast water and aquaculture in countries and regions highly susceptible to invasion (mainly areas that the species has not yet reached), thus providing useful information for decision making.