Ecological niche modeling uncovered that Holocene warming is responsible for disjoint distribution of Zamenis persicus (Werner, 1913) (Squamata: Colubridae)

Abstract

Zamenis persicus (Werner, 1913) is near-endemic to the “South Caspian Circumscripation”, which is covered by Hyrcanian forests, a critical biodiversity hot spot in western Eurasia in terms of their origin and evolutionary history. The present study aims to evaluate the changes in the distribution of Zamenis persicus in the past, current, and future periods. For this purpose, 51 points of presence of species and eight climatic variables were analysed with Maxent software. We used four presence points outside the typical habitat of the species to test the presence of this species in the past in those areas. The most important variable affecting the distribution of the species is annual precipitation. The distribution of this species was more extensive in the past than today and included four test points, Miyaneh, Qom, Sabzevar, and Sarakhs. It seems that with the decline of Hyrcanian forests in the past, this species has shifted to higher latitudes. Predictions also forecasted a possible shrinkage of this species’ range. Climate change and habitat change can have a more severe effect on the remaining habitats of this species.