Abstract
Background Culex tritaeniorhynchus is the primary vector of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), a leading cause of encephalitis in Asia. JEV is transmitted in an enzootic cycle involving large wading birds as the reservoirs and swine as amplifying hosts. The development of a JEV vaccine reduced the number of JE cases in regions with comprehensive childhood vaccination programs, such as in Japan and the Republic of Korea. However, the lack of vaccine programs or insufficient coverage of populations in other endemic countries leaves many people susceptible to JEV. The aim of this study was to predict the distribution of Culex tritaeniorhynchus using ecological niche modeling.Methods/Principal FindingsAn ecological niche model was constructed using the Maxent program to map the areas with suitable environmental conditions for the Cx. tritaeniorhynchus vector. Program input consisted of environmental data (temperature, elevation, rainfall) and known locations of vector presence resulting from an extensive literature search and records from MosquitoMap. The statistically significant Maxent model of the estimated probability of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus presence showed that the mean temperatures of the wettest quarter had the greatest impact on the model. Further, the majority of human Japanese encephalitis (JE) cases were located in regions with higher estimated probability of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus presence.Conclusions/SignificanceOur ecological niche model of the estimated probability of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus presence provides a framework for better allocation of vector control resources, particularly in locations where JEV vaccinations are unavailable. Furthermore, this model provides estimates of vector probability that could improve vector surveillance programs and JE control efforts.
Highlights
Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), the causative agent of Japanese encephalitis (JE), is an arbovirus that belongs to the family Flaviviridae and is endemic to Southeast and Northeast Asia, the Pacific Islands, and northern Australia (Figure 1) [1]
Within the past 40 years, rice agriculture in JEV endemic countries has increased by 20%, thereby expanding Cx. tritaeniorhynchus habitat and increasing human risk of exposure to vector populations [7]
Despite the development of a JEV vaccine, people remain unvaccinated in endemic countries and are susceptible to JEV infection
Summary
Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), the causative agent of Japanese encephalitis (JE), is an arbovirus that belongs to the family Flaviviridae and is endemic to Southeast and Northeast Asia, the Pacific Islands, and northern Australia (Figure 1) [1]. Within the past 40 years, rice agriculture in JEV endemic countries has increased by 20%, thereby expanding Cx. tritaeniorhynchus habitat and increasing human risk of exposure to vector populations [7]. Swine, including domestic and feral pigs, serve as amplifying hosts of JEV in endemic areas. Additional animals have been identified as host species for JEV, including domesticated animals (chickens, goats, cows, and dogs), as well as bats, flying foxes, ducks, snakes and frogs. These are considered dead-end hosts as they infrequently develop sufficient viremias to infect mosquito vectors [10,11,12,13]. The aim of this study was to predict the distribution of Culex tritaeniorhynchus using ecological niche modeling
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