Abstract
BackgroundRabies is a disease of global significance including in the circumpolar Arctic. In Alaska enzootic rabies persist in northern and western coastal areas. Only sporadic cases have occurred in areas outside of the regions considered enzootic for the virus, such as the interior of the state and urbanized regions.ResultsHere we examine the distribution of diagnosed rabies cases in Alaska, explicit in space and time. We use a geographic information system (GIS), 20 environmental data layers and provide a quantitative non-parsimonious estimate of the predicted ecological niche, based on data mining, machine learning and open access data. We identify ecological correlates and possible drivers that determine the ecological niche of rabies virus in Alaska. More specifically, our models show that rabies cases are closely associated with human infrastructure, and reveal an ecological niche in remote northern wilderness areas. Furthermore a model utilizing climate modeling suggests a reduction of the current ecological niche for detection of rabies virus in Alaska, a state that is disproportionately affected by a changing climate.ConclusionsOur results may help to better inform public health decisions in the future and guide further studies on individual drivers of rabies distribution in the Arctic.
Highlights
Rabies is a disease of global significance including in the circumpolar Arctic
Classification and regression trees (CARTs)- based boosting and bagging (TreeNet, RandomForest, SPM7, Salford Systems Ltd) using the ‘default’ settings for those models because they are designed for presence data, data mining were used to model the ecological niche of rabies in Alaska
This study provides for the first time publically available data of 153 confirmed rabies cases from 1914 to 2013 with different degrees of geo-referencing quality
Summary
Rabies is a disease of global significance including in the circumpolar Arctic. The exact extent of enzootic regions is unknown Large urban settlements such as the cities of Anchorage, Fairbanks and Juneau, are not directly affected by enzootic rabies apart from occasional importation of the disease through translocation of infected dogs from enzootic rural areas (for an example see [11]). The regions of Alaska with the highest burden of rabies cases in both wildlife and domestic dogs, like many other remote arctic communities, generally lack adequate veterinary care and dog vaccination. Industrial developments in remote areas are known to enhance invasive species, including diseases (see [12] for invasive species in Alaska) and can provide significant attractions to wildlife through food subsidies, as well as olfactory or light stimuli [13, 14]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
