Abstract
BackgroundThe purpose of this study is to create distribution models of two sand fly species, Phlebotomus papatasi (Scopoli) and P. alexandri (Sinton), across the Middle East. Phlebotomus alexandri is a vector of visceral leishmaniasis, while P. papatasi is a vector of cutaneous leishmaniasis and sand fly fever. Collection records were obtained from literature reports from 1950 through 2007 and unpublished field collection records. Environmental layers considered in the model were elevation, precipitation, land cover, and WorldClim bioclimatic variables. Models were evaluated using the threshold-independent area under the curve (AUC) receiver operating characteristic analysis and the threshold-dependent minimum training presence.ResultsFor both species, land cover was the most influential environmental layer in model development. The bioclimatic and elevation variables all contributed to model development; however, none influenced the model as strongly as land cover.ConclusionWhile not perfect representations of the absolute distribution of P. papatasi and P. alexandri, these models indicate areas with a higher probability of presence of these species. This information could be used to help guide future research efforts into the ecology of these species and epidemiology of the pathogens that they transmit.
Highlights
Phlebotomus (Phlebotomus) papatasi (Scopoli) and P. (Paraphlebotomus) alexandri (Sinton) are widely distributed across parts of Europe, Africa, and Asia
Phlebotomus papatasi is a vector of sand fly fever virus and Leishmania major, which causes cutaneous leishmaniasis [1,2,3]
None of these variables were valuable in isolation for either model creation or validation. This is most likely a reflection of the correlated nature of the temperature and precipitation variables. These models are estimates of the distribution of P. papatasi and P. alexandri, based on the environmental layers chosen in the study and the location of collection records
Summary
Phlebotomus (Phlebotomus) papatasi (Scopoli) and P. (Paraphlebotomus) alexandri (Sinton) are widely distributed across parts of Europe, Africa, and Asia. Phlebotomus alexandri is a vector of L. donovani and is a suspected vector of L. infantum, both of which cause visceral leishmaniasis [4,5,6] Though these species are important disease vectors, little is known about the ecology and distribution of each. Phlebotomus papatasi is most abundant in areas with a mean minimum temperature of 16°C and mean maximum temperature of 44°C from May to October [8]. It can be found at elevations ranging from near sea level to over 1100 m [9]. The purpose of this study is to create distribution models of two sand fly species, Phlebotomus papatasi (Scopoli) and P. alexandri (Sinton), across the Middle East. Models were evaluated using the threshold-independent area under the curve (AUC) receiver operating characteristic analysis and the threshold-dependent minimum training presence
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