Ecological indicators of near-surface permafrost habitat at the southern margin of the boreal forest in China

Abstract

Abstract The most dramatic permafrost degradation is expected to occur at the southern edge of permafrost distribution, which is difficult to detect directly on a large scale. Ecological indicators can be used to provide an early signal of changes in terrestrial ecosystems for regional near-surface permafrost habitats and potentially to monitor near-surface permafrost degradation. In this study, plant composition and community structure indicate the near-surface permafrost distribution at the southern edge of the boreal forest and permafrost in northeastern China. The plant species composition and structure of aboveground vegetation were linked to the belowground near-surface permafrost distribution in order to find indicators of changes in vegetation features from permafrost melting. These indicators are essential for assessing changes in permafrost vegetation systems under climate change. Carex schmidtii and C. appendiculata in the herb layer and Betula fruticosa in the shrub layer were found to be specific near-surface permafrost plant indicator species, especially for the wetland permafrost. Shrub cover, moss mat thickness and tree canopy cover are also strongly correlated with near-surface permafrost distribution. The active layer thickness (ALT) showed negative correlations with moss thickness and shrub cover because these features may act as buffers for regional climate warming. We chose the cover of each indicator species, near-surface permafrost-specific community features and geographical information as independent variables to predict the possible distribution of near-surface permafrost in our study region using logistic regression. The results showed that the prediction model had good performance and accuracy. Our study sheds light on early caution of deepening of regional-scale permafrost active layer with vegetation indicators that can further be identified from satellite images.