Ecological implications of climate change will include surprises

Abstract

In addition to assessing the impacts of CO2 doubling on environment and society, more consideration is needed to estimate extreme events or ‘surprises’. This is particularly important at the intersection of disciplines like climate and ecology because the potential for large discontinuities is high given all the possible climate/biota interactions. The vast disparities in scales encountered by those working in traditional ecology (typically 20 m) and climatology (typically 200 km) make diagnoses of such interactions difficult, but these can be addressed by an emerging research paradigm we call strategic cyclical scaling (SCS). The need to anticipate outlier events and assign them subjective probabilities suggests emphasis on interdisciplinary research associations. The desire to reduce societal vulnerability to such events suggests the need to build adaptive management and diverse economic activities into social organizations. The effectiveness of adaptation responses to anticipated climatic changes is complicated when consideration of transient changes, regional disturbances, large unforseeable natural fluctuations and surprises are considered. Slowing down the rate of disturbances and decreasing vulnerability are advocated as the most prudent responses to the prospect of human-induced climatic changes.