Ecological footprint simulation and prediction by ARIMA model—A case study in Henan Province of China

Abstract

Ecological footprint (EF), as one of the sustainable development indicators, has received considerable attention. However, it has mostly been used as a static indicator. The accurate quantitative analysis on its development trend is still rare. Thus, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was introduced to enhance the forecasting capacity of EF indicator. Taking Henan Province of China as a study area, we firstly computed the EF and the ecological carrying capacity (EC) in 1949–2006. Based on the computed results, the simulating process of the ARIMA model and the fitting and forecasting results were explained in detail. The final results demonstrated that ARIMA model could be used effectively in the simulation and prediction of EF and the predicted EF could help the decision-makers make a package of better planning for regional ecological balance or sustainable future.