Ecological correlates of bluetongue virus in Spain: Predicted spatial occurrence and its relationship with the observed abundance of the potential Culicoides spp. vector

Abstract

Using data from bluetongue (BT) outbreaks caused by viral serotype 4 (BTV-4) in Spain during 2004-2005, a predictive model for BTV-4 occurrence in peninsular Spain was developed. An autologistic regression model was employed to estimate the relationships between BTV-4 presence and bioclimatic-related and host-availability-related variables. In addition, the observed abundances of the main potential Culicoides vectors during 2004-2005, namely Culicoides imicola, Culicoides obsoletus group, and species of the Culicoides pulicaris group, were compared between BTV-4 presence/absence areas predicted by the model. BTV-4 occurrence was mainly explained by bioclimatic variables, although a consideration of host-availability variables led to improved fit of the model. The area of BTV-4 presence predicted by the model largely resembled the core distribution area of C. imicola, and this species was the most abundant Culicoides spp. in predicted BTV-4 presence areas. The results suggest that the spatial expansion of BTV-4 took place only as far as those areas in which C. imicola populations efficiently transmitted the virus.