Abstract
The article involves the long-term joint dynamics in the conditions of the Southern Aral Sea region of the population size of the most typical for this region system “predator-rodents-plants”. It is shown that the specifics of the dynamics of natural processes in a crisis (in this case, the Aral crisis) require the development of special simulation models taking into account the control parameters and order parameters of the destabilized ecosystem. The classical models of the Lotka-Volter “predator-prey” type, built for a normally, steadily functioning ecosystem, turn out to be inadequate for crisis conditions.
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