Abstract
Since its origins, thousands of years ago, agriculture has been challenged by the presence of evolving plant pathogens. Temporal rotations of host and non-host crops have helped farmers to control epidemics among other utilities, but further efforts for strategy assessment are needed. Here, we present a methodology for developing crop rotation strategies optimal for control of pathogens informed by numerical simulations of eco-evolutionary dynamics in one field. This approach can integrate agronomic criteria used in crop rotations—soil quality and cash yield—and the analysis of pathogen evolution in systems where hosts are artificially selected. Our analysis shows which rotation patterns perform better in maximising crop yield when an unspecified infection occurs, with yield being dependent on both soil quality and the strength of the epidemic. Importantly, the use of non-host crops, which both improve soil quality and control the epidemic results in similar rational rotation strategies for diverse agronomic and infection conditions. We test the repeatability of the best rotation patterns over multiple decades, an essential end-user goal. Our results provide sustainable strategies for optimal resource investment for increased food production and lead to further insights into the minimisation of pesticide use in a society demanding ever more efficient agriculture.
Highlights
Around ten thousand years ago, changes in climate conditions led to the emergence of agricultural practices in human hunter-gatherer communities around the globe [1]
Further insights on rational resistance patterns could lead to new approaches for reducing pesticide use
Instead of applying the pesticide in all host seasons, the application could be limited to the host seasons where the pathogen density is low
Summary
Around ten thousand years ago, changes in climate conditions led to the emergence of agricultural practices in human hunter-gatherer communities around the globe [1]. As the human population continues to multiply, current agriculture practices need to address a two-fold problem of the dearth of enough food supply and plant pathogens. Techniques such as slash-and-burn, pesticides and fertilisers are used for increasing yield as well as dealing with pests but do not contribute to agricultural sustainability [6]. The models guide allocating crops depending on their characteristics—botanical family, market demand, or soil demands –, examining the spatial distribution and temporal successions These models need to integrate other farming concerns, one of which being the control of plant pathogens [10]
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