Abstract
The Year Of Polar Prediction (YOPP) dataset of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) contains initial condition and forecast model output from the operational global, coupled numerical weather prediction system. The dataset has been created to support model forecast evaluation, predictability studies and model error analyses over polar areas, which are strongly affected by climate change with yet unknown feedbacks on global circulation. The dataset complements YOPP observation and modeling research activities that represent a key deliverable of the World Meteorological Organization’s Polar Prediction Program. The dataset covers the period from mid-2017 until the end of the MOSAiC field campaign, expected for autumn 2020. Initial conditions and forecasts up to day-15 are included for the atmosphere and land surface for the entire period, and for ocean and sea-ice model components after June 2019. In addition, tendencies from model dynamics and individual physical processes are included for the first two forecast days. These are essential for characterizing the contribution of individual processes to model state evolution and, hence, for diagnosing sources of model error.
Highlights
Background & SummaryGiven the amplified sensitivity of polar regions to climate change[1] and its yet unknown effects on regional and even global weather patterns and their impacts on society and economies, there is a substantial need to make a concerted investment in polar research at international level
Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) created the synopsis of dedicated polar field campaigns, enhanced operational observation programs and numerical experimentation to enhance our understanding of the Earth-system processes at high latitudes and to improve the representation of such processes in numerical models
The ongoing consolidation phase of YOPP (July 2019 to July 2023) aims to take advantage of the wealth of information gathered in the YOPP core phase to significantly advance the predictive skill of operational weather prediction systems and climate projections
Summary
Given the amplified sensitivity of polar regions to climate change[1] and its yet unknown effects on regional and even global weather patterns and their impacts on society and economies, there is a substantial need to make a concerted investment in polar research at international level. The YOPP dataset of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has been designed to (i) make freely available atmosphere, ocean and sea-ice output from the world’s leading global medium-range numerical weather prediction system and to (ii) add non-operational output that permits a deeper analysis of individual model process contributions to the evolution of state for identifying and characterising key sources of model error. The latter is crucial for achieving the overall goal of YOPP, namely the combined use of observations and simulations to advance model development and predictive skill from weather to climate scales.
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